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Peterborough Byelection

20 Jun 2019 11:08 | LCER

Labour won – Phew! The Brexit Party ate into the Conservative Vote.  How close four parties are from the magic threshold of 25 per cent under first past the post when you start getting loads of seats.  On Martin Baxter’s seat calculator at the moment the Tories would be reduced to 28 seats with the Brexit Party on well over 250.  We are not predicting it would happen in reality but it does underline how egregious our current voting system is.  But see recent Electoral Calculus: https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html.  Here Labour gets wiped out in Scotland and keeps its safest seats often in Leave areas. 

Labour might retain more seats than the Conservatives but we made the mistake in the 2015 General Election of thinking UKIP would only take Conservative votes whereas it took our Labour votes too, hence a majority Tory government and the Brexit Referendum. So let us not rely on Nigel Farage to get us a Labour government.  Talks are already underway so that if we have a snap election the Brexit Party will not stand in Conservative seats where the MP/candidate is in favour of a No Deal Brexit.  The strange death of Labour Britain by Matthew Goodwin illustrates Labour’s dilemma not just on being clear on Remain or Brexit but to keep a coalition together which is a winning formula for Labour: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-strange-death-of-labour-britain-8npfmgqnn.  Andrew Rawnsley has written eloquently on the voting system unfit in a multi party age: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/09/our-archaic-first-past-post-system-alarmingly-unfit-multi-party-age?CMP=share_btn_link.  

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